While many European countries are seeing sharp spikes in coronavirus cases and preparing to tighten Covid restrictions, the UK is moving differently. According to experts, differences in people’s immunity and behavior are possible explanations.
To date, the UK has the highest morbidity and mortality rates in Europe. In recent weeks they have fallen in England. The latest daily number of people sampled positive in the UK was 42,408 – a drop of around 12% over the past seven days.
As turbulence handles touring jets, the data for the UK has been increasing at roughly the same rate since the summer. Covid cases are increasing across much of Europe, with several countries already surging to higher levels than the UK. Looking at the percentage of one million people in the UK, around 500 will test positive for Covid each day.
In Austria, this value is more than double.
The Netherlands, also ahead of Great Britain, is expected to announce its first “partial blockade” of Western Europe in the winter for three weeks. Countries such as Germany are slightly lower, but the trend is worrying. And has led to an anniversary of 100,000 deaths in the country this week.
“Cases are increasing quite rapidly in most of Europe at the moment; the situation is very volatile,” Professor Francois Balu from University College London. He added: “This rapid growth in Europe was difficult to predict just a few weeks ago.”
The driving force behind the peak is a combination of human behavior and the amount of immunity in the population. “If things go wrong and infection is just a possibility, expect numbers to increase, and more communication. And mixing indoors means there is more chance of transmission, even for those who have been vaccinated.
The UK’s continued high Covid-19 rates – which have been “hotter” than Europe. All summer will add to the immunity afforded by the vaccination campaign. “In the UK, the percentage of the population who have antibodies from vaccination or infection or both is very high. So more people are protected,” said Prof Balu.